Shen Yi: if the deal after TikTok into skin, can be defined as survive?Shen Yi: if the deal after TikTok into skin, can be defined as survive?
[article/observer network columnist Shen Yi 】 English called TikTok enterprise, the American government put pressure on myself in a "strong buy", the public opinion field triggered a fierce debate in China.
Is very important but often neglected is that the identity of the participants, cognition, and thus determine the starting point and standpoint.
Any such discussions is the combination of the subjective and objective, for the objective facts information differences, as well as the subjective position of the more significant differences, further exacerbated the connotation is rich.
Obviously, on the premise of unable to grasp all information and any discussion is likely to be built on a specific premise hypothesis;
Likewise, through such discussion, the real significance is close to the fact that effectively through effective discussion again, further facilitate the discussant cognitive, more close to the truth or facts.
Any such discussion, there is a position.
In today's world, these positions can be roughly divided into the country and the country.
Country's position and specific sovereign state and sovereign nations seek interests closely, the country's position is established on the basis of this assumption, namely there is no sovereign state area is lain between, the whole world and beyond the sovereign state position and thinking in on capital, income is relatively neutral, instead of under capital, profit distribution in the understanding and the understanding of different between sovereign nations.
In terms of personal cognitive framework, the basic types are heavy national centralism, cognitive, and to analysis and significant attributes of nationalism.
This is the core of the U.S. government policy-making circle, also basic belong to this type.
However, in the ideal world in order to pursue, the author agree with the idea of human destiny community, agreed that in the depth of the sovereign equality on the basis of global economic integration;
Accordingly, dislike the hegemony of the us to pursue the world order, because this kind of hegemonic order, is essentially a single American sovereignty
To expand, and denied to all outside the United States national sovereignty concerns, in the process of practice, often manifests itself in the other state sovereignty and core interests on the basis of sovereignty one-way squeeze.
Based on this understanding, as well as the historical analogy in some kind of intuition, when TikTok harbor, after the "strong buy" Su Xun "theory of the six countries" in the "to the qin dynasty, like add fuel to the fire", became the most intuitive association.
Someone to subdivide, of course, from a technical level, the qin dynasty was gone out, the expansion of the six countries and the United States as the only superpower today, without expansion, after is through CIFUS) (note: the foreign investment commission mechanism of "black box", to eliminate any potential threat to hegemony may of external factors.
However, to be sure, the analogy here, never is whether today's America and expansion at the beginning of qin dynasty, but from the deal with similar threats, namely to non-economic strongly backed extortion response strategy;
Or, we will answer question is, in the face of such extortionate "sold", limited, whether can be an effective strategy?
Obviously, I prefer the answer is, no.
I just happens in TikTok events recorded in the video, put forward a hypothesis, namely under us pressure to join the acquisition of capital, will continue to release more requirements, so that the "stop loss" has become an unlikely option, is refers to by limited to give up part of the business, such as giving up the business or give up ally the United States and its core business, to keep other global operations, impossible.
Bill Gates told bloomberg access in writing on August 7, 2020 in the morning, the financial times launched a new message, involved in the acquisition of Microsoft requires more ambitious, purchase TikTok global business.
(note: morning, Beijing time 7 bytes beat denied that Microsoft would like to receive
I bought TikTok global business.
From the nature of the company, the wikipedia entry is written, "TikTok", or "trill overseas edition", is a byte to beat for the parent company in Beijing, Chinese enterprises provide social video service.
(TikTok/Douyin (Chinese: Aztec trafigura/trill.
Pinyin: Di Ke Tu not Ke/D ǒ uy and n) is a Chinese video - sharing social networking service owned by ByteDance, a Beijing - -based Internet technology company founded in 2012 by Zhang Yiming.) this reflects an interesting cognitive differences: people familiar with the matter, including TikTok own introduction, are made clear, the shareholding structure, governance structure, distributed data storage, server, user access, etc., as the overseas edition of trill, TikTok since its inception, are trying to show that you have nothing to do with China's "global properties.
In the "strong buy" after the incident, tiktok founder's letter also has more clearer.
In the context of self-knowledge, TikTok founder always its positioning as a "global enterprise";
In practice, however, is not only a significant number of Chinese Internet users don't agree with, even the us government targeted TikTok also insists that this is a Chinese company.
This awareness is subjective, of course, for the United States, decide whether TikTok for a Chinese company, is never according to the technical standard, but according to the simple and crude, founder of the nationality
And company development, between parent and subsidiary elements such as origin, adhere to the judgement of TikTok is a Chinese company.
On this basis, follow the cognitive framework of = "China threat" to determine the TikTok threat, the reason is that they are clearly identified, as long as the founder of TikTok is Chinese, the parent company in China, TikTok would "probably" under the jurisdiction of the law by the Chinese government, that is a "threat".
When America hold significant centralism, nationalist cognition, with the cold war mentality to see and know TikTok, final practice effect is that any property beyond the age of idealized the globalism of cognition, will be in the game and the weakness of the asymmetric status: the United States will be from the technical to the political and so on various aspects, the pilot put forward a variety of requirements, or that is shrouded in "compliance" under the cloak of requirements;
TikTok, has been in self defense, correcting, instructions, correct again, again, until the fall into the inexplicable passive state.
From this round of the game of very specific, TikTok faces is the power of the three different types: first, the anxiety about China strategy, at the same time at a disadvantage in the domestic politics of the political power, they hope to suppress TikTok to gain political gains, because "TikTok =" in China, to suppress TikTok to crackdown on the Chinese, to eliminate the Chinese threat, to show the U.S. government to defend its national interests, safeguarding national security governance capabilities.
In the November 2020 presidential election approaching, it also means a positive earnings on the political, particularly helpful to eliminate the new crown epidemic in the United States is out of control as a result of governance crisis.
Second, interested in TikTok field, hope to share capital strength.
No matter where from capital force
Quantity, all is not gain that is focused on.
The earnings, the operation can be continuously hold TikTok, then enjoy the growth of the business income for a long time, also can be through the capital transaction, enjoy severance benefits, then member let out into the capital.
After the encounter with the U.S. government's political threat, quickly find the right buyer, and Microsoft as the reaper, thanks to the American government, first to introduce the other American capital, finally set out an ambitious TikTok global business acquisitions, was normal reaction to this capital.
Third, with the TikTok significant competitive relationship, trying to non-economic means to occupy the first mover advantage, relying on market forces are difficult to shake TikTok implementation, and instead of commercial rivals.
Facebook, is one of the most classic representative.
Obviously, for the founder of facebook, no TikTok is a very important thing, because eliminates the TikTok, means that facebook won the living space.
Facebook CEO mark zuckerberg in congress against TikTok antitrust hearings, video capture TikTok into the embarrassing situation in the short term, not to discuss response strategies, the above three kinds of strength formation on TikTok consensus, is of vital importance.
Of course, the first kind of political power to suppress the process of scoring, as for whether really eliminate, or to what extent, to score and calm;
The second capital strength, as the main body of "strong buy", hope to pass on to "bargains" obviously, as far as possible to reduce costs, improve profitability;
Third force, the focus is on "no important TikTok", aims at flange TikTok exit after market share, at the physical level to eliminate TikTok is the core of the third.
Political power in the election season demand for political points, decided
In the process of "strong buy", consciously or unconsciously show will acquire tiktok as an important evidence to prove that "national governance", through the simple and crude implementation "extreme pressure" to achieve the art of trading, figuratively speaking, realtor, to demand a habit of trading again, finally take commissions, performance.
Capital strength, including has entered the TikTok and are considering acquisitions, focus on the interests of blending, whether is it continue to hold or sell disposable, decided to trading behavior is the core standard of costs and benefits.
In this sense, their cognition and ordinary citizens to form the significant differences, national attribute is replaced with the global view of capital of the world continue to be that is flat, universal equivalent return to the number of universal equivalent to discuss, is considered the opinions of the people is full of strong emotions attribute, is "irrational", the political power of powers strategic considerations in this may also be more just in the game, some not necessary to talk about, unless the benefits and direct association between, the capital will not hesitate to borrow, to enlarge its earnings in a matter of fact to the extreme.
There are some very practical argument that, TikTok must avoid the worst outcome, is to "live", so to "stop", let the TikTok live in various ways, to avoid deadly opponents, such as facebook, want to find a "good" buyers, such as Microsoft became it's "it's all business, insurance car lost pawn" ideas under the most pragmatic choice, even is the only choice.
From solid operating level, this is not entirely unreasonable, but need to think about is, what exactly is a "live"?
Microsoft may be able to accept a deal, is to complete the capital/equity structure adjustment, the governance structure remains the same as far as possible;
But as a political force in another dimension, can accept this solution?
If even Microsoft
The acquirers are encountered direct political pressure, TikTok take what as leverage to ensure their own survival?
Don't rely on an unshakable belief in the good?
If, in a final results TikTok turned into a "skin" : capital/equity structure, the United States introduced Microsoft and its capital, 100% takeover;
Governance structure, TikTok and bytes to beat the parent company cut off all contact, there is no longer any subordinate relations;
Property investors in China, and only from Microsoft or other capital structure, TikTok subsequent gains, but in the development of TikTok operations without any permission, such as "TikTok" can be defined as survive?
And if the result of the final deal was TikTok periodically to give up the United States and its five eye ally business, temporarily saved other countries and regions in the world of business, that he how to avoid another country or another several countries, with the same pattern, same means, called for an "split" limited TikTok?
Don't continue with its goodwill and strictly follow the principle of it's "it's all business"?
Use the framework of game theory to see, for TikTok "strong buy" is a classic chicken game, and the choice of TikTok, equivalent to two car just as he chooses to slant direction, refused to "the worst case scenario";
Even put aside nationalist stance, simply as a commercial game strategy, it's hard to say the worst of it is not a choice.
Here, as before the mutiperiodic video recording when personal mood, I sincerely hope that the fact that development, can prove that the whole theory and anticipation is wrong, the globalism idealized cognitive can bring good results.
However, when it is actually a return to the realism aspect of cold, want people to face the reality bravely, and then in the future to avoid repeating some originally can completely
In order to avoid mistake, and finally in the real, rather than the subjective imagination to build a better world.